This paper by Caroline Hillairet, Olivier Lopez and Lionel Sopgoui (CREST, UMR CNRS) describes a stochastic SIR model designed to quantify the financial impact of contagious cyber-attacks on corporate revenues and insurance portfolios. By blending epidemiological frameworks with economic granular growth models, the researchers account for the reality that larger firms are more frequent targets and exhibit different internal infection dynamics. The model specifically utilizes Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes to incorporate environmental variability, allowing for more realistic simulations of how ransomware spreads within and between organizations. A key practical application analyzes the 2024 LockBit ransomware attacks, offering insurers a method to calculate Aggregate Exceedance Probabilities to forecast potential losses. Ultimately, the framework bridges the gap between cybersecurity technicalities and financial risk management, providing a tool for measuring systemic cyber threats across diverse industrial sectors.
This research introduces a Bayesian Network simulation model designed to quantify the effectiveness of Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) within small-medium businesses (SMBs). By utilizing Monte Carlo simulations and historical data, the study validates how ZTA can reduce the likelihood of data breaches and the overall magnitude of cyber risk by up to 20 percent. The authors analyze critical implementation barriers, such as financial constraints and organizational resistance, providing a roadmap for resource-strapped firms to adopt "never trust, always verify" principles. Key findings highlight that credential-based attacks and insider threats are the most significant risks, which can be mitigated through core controls like encryption and multi-factor authentication. Ultimately, the model serves as a risk-informed decision tool to help SMBs enhance their cyber resilience and regulatory compliance.
This discussion paper explores strategies for creating a more integrated data collection system for the insurance and pension sectors. The document seeks stakeholder feedback on reducing regulatory reporting inefficiencies, such as redundant data requirements and inconsistent definitions across various EU frameworks. While the insurance sector already benefits from a highly harmonized system under Solvency II, the paper notes that occupational pension (IORPs) reporting remains fragmented and varies significantly by country. Key priorities include streamlining the reporting of derivatives and collective investment undertakings by potentially leveraging existing data sources like EMIR. Ultimately, the initiative aims to lower compliance costs for firms and modernize the digital infrastructure used for supervisory data sharing.