This lecture explores how probability theory can quantify uncertainty, chance, and even ignorance. He demonstrates methods to measure the quality of these quantified uncertainties. He also humorously admits a miscalculation during the lecture regarding paired comparisons within the audience.
The FSB proposes nine policy recommendations to manage NBFI leverage risks, focusing on improved risk monitoring, data, disclosures, market oversight, and cross-border cooperation. These aim for consistent regulatory treatment globally. Public comment is open until February 28, 2025, with a final report due mid-2025.
The study finds that banks engaging in greenwashing practices contribute to increased systemic risk, especially larger and less efficient ones. The market values actual ESG performance more than disclosures, and strong environmental performance helps mitigate this risk.
Generative AI (GAI) is transforming banking risk management, improving fraud detection by 37%, credit risk accuracy by 28%, and regulatory compliance efficiency by 42%. GAI enhances stress testing but faces challenges in privacy, explainability, and skills gaps. Its adoption, led by larger banks, demands holistic strategies for equitable industry impact.
A 2024 DORA Dry Run, involving ~1,000 EU financial entities, showed promising data quality for information registers. 6.5% passed all checks, and 50% passed most. The ESAs, aiming for high-quality registers by 2025, provided support tools and feedback, and will continue workshops to ensure compliance.
AI adoption in finance introduces risks like model inaccuracies, data security issues, and cyber threats. FINMA notes many institutions are at early development stages for AI governance. It urges better risk management to protect business models and enhance the financial center's reputation.
The ECB has decided to keep capital requirements largely unchanged for 2025 due to the strong performance of banks. However, specific banks will face additional capital requirements due to insufficient provisioning for non-performing loans and high exposures to leveraged loans. The ECB emphasized the need for banks to address governance, risk management, and operational resilience, particularly in light of macroeconomic threats and digital transformation challenges.
The FCA's proposed new regulations require firms to report operational incidents that could harm consumers or the financial system. This broadens the scope of reporting beyond traditional principles. Additionally, firms must notify the FCA of material third-party arrangements, including those that pose risks to the financial system or the firm's ability to meet regulatory obligations. This expanded regulatory focus on the entire lifecycle of services and activities highlights the increasing importance of operational resilience and third-party risk management.
The OCC reports that operational risk is elevated due to cyber threats and complex operations. Compliance risks are also significant, especially in areas like BSA/AML and fraud prevention. External fraud targeting consumers and banks is increasing, requiring strong fraud management practices. Banks should prioritize risk management, maintain sound controls, and educate customers to mitigate these risks.
The PRA’s proposals aim to enhance safety, soundness, and policyholder protection by collecting timely, accurate data on operational incidents. This data will improve monitoring, support industry feedback, and help address vulnerabilities and emerging risks, bolstering operational resilience across the sector.