106 résultats pour « insurance »

Stochastic Loss Reserving: Dependence and Estimation

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Insurers face complex risk dependencies in loss reserving. Additive background risk models (ABRMs) offer interpretable structures but can be restrictive. Estimation challenges arise in models without closed-form likelihoods. Using a modified continuous generalized method of moments (CGMM), comparable to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), addresses these challenges in certain loss reserving models, including stable distributions.

How loss reduction costs and testing for severity risk affect insurance decisions

This paper explores moral hazard in insurance when individuals test for risk severity. It highlights how regulations and loss reduction costs impact behavior. Monetary costs lead to uniform loss reduction, while convex costs drive higher-risk individuals to reduce losses more. Insurers can incentivize risk discovery and reduction through tailored contracts.

Advancing Pay‑as‑You‑Drive Insurance with Bayesian Models: Risk Prediction and Factor Causal Mapping

This study explores a Bayesian approach to Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance, using Naive Bayes classifiers and Bayesian Networks for risk assessment. It achieved 87.5% accuracy in predicting risk and improved interpretability over traditional models, optimizing pricing strategies and promoting affordable coverage by dismissing geographic grouping in insurance pricing.

FIRE CLAIM SIZE ESTIMATION USING MATHEMATICAL METHODS: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION & SCENARIO ANALYSIS

This report uses UK fire statistics to model insurance claims for a company next year. It estimates the total sum of claims by modeling both the number and size of fires as random variables from statistical distributions. Monte Carlo simulations in R are used to predict the probability distribution of total claim costs.

Valuing insurance against small probability risks: A meta‑analysis

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A meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies on voluntary insurance for low-probability, high-impact risks finds demand lower than expected. Stated willingness to pay (WTP) averages 87% of expected losses. Factors like loss probability information positively affect WTP, while income and age negatively influence it. Cultural and methodological factors also impact WTP.

Privacy‑Enhancing Collaborative Information Sharing through Federated Learning -- A Case of the Insurance Industry

The report highlights Federated Learning's (FL) benefits in claims loss modeling by enabling collaboration across multiple insurance datasets without data sharing. FL addresses data privacy concerns, rarity of claim events, and lack of informative factors. It enhances forecasting effectiveness while preserving data privacy, applicable beyond insurance to fraud detection and catastrophe modeling, fostering future collaborations.

Estimation of Spectral Risk Measure for Left Truncated and Right Censored Data

Monte Carlo studies are conducted to compare the proposed spectral risk measure estimator with the existing parametric and non parametric estimators for left truncated and right censored data. Based on our simulation study we estimate the exponential spectral risk measure for three data sets viz; Norwegian fire claims data set, Spain automobile insurance claims and French marine losses.