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The Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025 reveals escalating cyber risks due to geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and supply chain vulnerabilities. Over 50% of organizations cite supply chain risks as their top concern. Experts stress updating technology, redefining risk management, and fostering collaboration to address growing cybercrime, AI threats, and regulatory challenges.

This lecture explores how probability theory can quantify uncertainty, chance, and even ignorance. He demonstrates methods to measure the quality of these quantified uncertainties. He also humorously admits a miscalculation during the lecture regarding paired comparisons within the audience.

Generative AI (GAI) is transforming banking risk management, improving fraud detection by 37%, credit risk accuracy by 28%, and regulatory compliance efficiency by 42%. GAI enhances stress testing but faces challenges in privacy, explainability, and skills gaps. Its adoption, led by larger banks, demands holistic strategies for equitable industry impact.

AI adoption in finance introduces risks like model inaccuracies, data security issues, and cyber threats. FINMA notes many institutions are at early development stages for AI governance. It urges better risk management to protect business models and enhance the financial center's reputation.

The ECB has decided to keep capital requirements largely unchanged for 2025 due to the strong performance of banks. However, specific banks will face additional capital requirements due to insufficient provisioning for non-performing loans and high exposures to leveraged loans. The ECB emphasized the need for banks to address governance, risk management, and operational resilience, particularly in light of macroeconomic threats and digital transformation challenges.

This notice emphasizes the importance of culture risk management in financial institutions. It outlines the responsibilities of senior management and the board in shaping and overseeing the organization's culture. By aligning policies, practices, and behaviors with desired cultural values, financial institutions can mitigate risks.

“... commitments to ESG might be viewed as signalling a particular approach to risk management rather than an ideologically-driven willingness to sacrifice profitability.”

The critical role of risk management in organizational success is highlighted, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) facing unique challenges due to limited resources. "Risk Management by Design" advocates integrating risk management into all facets of SME operations, aiding early identification, cost efficiency, and a competitive edge. Despite benefits, SMEs must navigate resource constraints to effectively balance risk and innovation.

We assess the impact of #brandreputation on asset prices, focusing on Donald Trump's presence in Manhattan real estate. Analyzing from mid-2015 to 2022, we find a 19% markdown on condos in Trump-branded buildings due to controversies around his candidacy. The drop was swift and substantial, indicating the relevance of #reputationalrisk in pricing. Using #twitter data, a 1-standard-deviation increase in our reputation indicator forecasts a 6% discount. Tax data shows no benefits, and property values fell by $1.1 billion, underlining the importance of considering reputational risk in #riskmanagement.

Companies use #ai tools for #hr decisions, but they face a balance between benefits and #risks. With limited federal #regulation and complex state laws, employers seek guidance. The #model#riskmanagement#mrm framework, adapted from #finance, aids in managing #airisks for #employment choices. Proportionality lets employers adjust validation to risks and tech changes. Objective analysis and a competent MRM team ensure AI tools align with design and legal requirements, fostering trust and #compliance.