As all transactions become digital, any involvement with EU users-even minor-triggers complex compliance risks, shifting the landscape from predictable “risk” to broader “uncertainty.” Compliance now dominates, reducing litigable individual rights and increasing disputes, but with a trend toward alternative and online dispute resolution (ADR/ODR). Traditional contract and litigation strategies are less effective, as mandatory compliance overrides forum or law choices. Future disputes will increasingly involve digital elements, requiring new approaches and cooperation between parties, especially regarding AI, data, and cybersecurity. Litigation will not decrease, but its nature will fundamentally change, demanding innovative risk management in international commercial litigation.
This study analyzes resource provisioning with strict reliability demands. It characterizes optimal cost scaling in chance-constrained problems as reliability increases. It reveals limitations of common distributionally robust optimization methods, proposes improvements using marginal distributions or f-divergences, and offers a line search for near-optimal solutions, overcoming data sample limitations.
This lecture explores how probability theory can quantify uncertainty, chance, and even ignorance. He demonstrates methods to measure the quality of these quantified uncertainties. He also humorously admits a miscalculation during the lecture regarding paired comparisons within the audience.
The paper investigates two topics in game theory and decision-making. In the first part, it explores the concept of delegation within a Bayesian persuasion framework. In the second part, the paper focuses on the process of equilibrium selection between the Pareto dominant equilibrium and the risk dominant equilibrium.
#bayesian data imputation holds significant importance in a variety of fields including #riskmanagement. Incomplete or missing data can hinder a thorough analysis of risks, making accurate decision-making challenging. By employing imputation techniques to fill in the gaps, risk managers can obtain a more comprehensive and reliable understanding of the underlying risk factors. This, in turn, enables them to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies for #riskmitigation.
"We model a setting where a firm must choose when to adapt to climate-induced resource scarcity based on objective expectations of climate change (climate projections), and is influenced by both risk (annual variability in climate projections) and ambiguity (inability to assign probabilities to various climate projections)."
"... we uncover the new evidence on how political uncertainty affects the riskiness of firms with high exposure to climate risk."