Cette cartographie annuelle des risques, souligne la résilience des marchés financiers malgré un contexte mondial incertain marqué par des tensions géopolitiques et commerciales. L'AMF constate une volatilité accrue sur toutes les classes d'actifs qui devrait persister. Les prévisions de croissance mondiale ont été revues à la baisse. Bien que les marchés aient fait preuve de résilience face aux ajustements récents, des risques de correction futurs subsistent. La gestion d'actifs française a bien résisté, mais l'AMF reste vigilante sur les fonds immobiliers commerciaux et les actifs illiquides. Les cyberattaques sont en hausse, et l'entrée en vigueur du règlement DORA vise à renforcer la résilience opérationnelle.
Le bilan agrégé des six principales banques françaises a progressé de 3,4% en 2024, atteignant 8 801,5 milliards d'euros, principalement grâce à une hausse des titres de dette détenus (+17,1%) et des prêts aux institutions financières. Le Produit Net Bancaire (PNB) a atteint un niveau historique de 158,7 milliards d'euros (+8%), porté par les commissions et les activités de marché, malgré un léger recul de la Marge Nette d'Intérêts. La rentabilité s'améliore, avec une hausse du résultat net de 11,7%. La situation de solvabilité (ratio CET1 à 15,6%) et de liquidité reste solide, bien que le risque de crédit ait légèrement augmenté dans un contexte macroéconomique incertain.
L'activité d'assurance-vie en France a connu une forte croissance en 2024, avec une collecte brute record de 141,8 milliards d'euros, tirée par les supports en euros. Les rachats ont diminué de 10% par rapport à 2023. La collecte nette est redevenue positive, atteignant 22,8 milliards d'euros, malgré une collecte nette négative pour les supports en euros. Dans le même temps, l'assurance non-vie a vu ses primes augmenter plus rapidement que les sinistres, améliorant le ratio combiné à 96,9%. Le ratio de solvabilité moyen des assureurs a légèrement baissé à 238% fin 2024, dû à une diminution des fonds propres et une hausse du capital de solvabilité requis.
EU/EEA banks are required to integrate geopolitical risk into their business processes and risk assessments, focusing on exposures to vulnerable sectors amid heightened global tensions. Maintaining operational resilience is essential as banks face rapid changes in geopolitical and technological environments, with increased investment in cybersecurity a priority. As defense financing needs rise, banks must apply robust underwriting standards. Market volatility underscores the importance of prudent capital buffer management and timely bond issuance. Effective cost and provision management, sustainable revenue strategies, and the integration of ESG risks into risk frameworks are also mandated.
The ESAs (EBA, EIOPA, and ESMA) have launched a public consultation on draft Joint Guidelines for ESG stress testing. These guidelines aim to standardize how banking and insurance sectors integrate environmental, social, and governance risks into supervisory stress tests. Key aspects include:
ESG Stress Testing Framework: Establishes a common approach for developing methodologies and standards across the EU's financial system.
Guidance on Stress Tests: Covers design, features, and organizational arrangements, including expertise, data management, and scenario analysis timelines.
Long-term Approach: Accommodates future advancements and data improvements, promoting consistency and effectiveness.
The consultation runs until September 19, 2025, allowing stakeholders to provide feedback on the draft guidelines.
This study examines how European insurance companies influence mutual fund stability, particularly during periods of significant net outflows. Utilizing Solvency II and Lipper/Eikon data, the study reveals that insurers exhibit contrarian trading behavior, purchasing fund shares when other investors divest, especially in fixed-income funds. This behavior is more pronounced for affiliated funds. The paper also finds that insurers' financial health, indicated by solvency ratios, impacts their ability to act as contrarian traders; lower solvency ratios correlate with fewer purchases during outflows. Funds with insurer investments demonstrate enhanced resilience, exhibiting lower flow-to-performance sensitivity and reduced flow volatility. The findings suggest insurers can mitigate investor runs, but their stabilizing influence may lessen under systemic stress affecting their own financial health.
Insurance Europe advocates for simplifying EU digital regulations, including the Cybersecurity Act and upcoming digital omnibus initiatives, to alleviate compliance burdens. The organization seeks to reduce overlaps and duplications in cybersecurity reporting, particularly under DORA, GDPR, and other horizontal legislations. They propose aligning cyber reporting mechanisms and centralizing notifications to multiple national agencies. Additionally, Insurance Europe supports stakeholder involvement in cybersecurity certification development, emphasizing that certification should remain voluntary. Concerns have been raised regarding the European Cybersecurity Certification Scheme for Cloud Services (EUCS), specifically regarding a lack of transparency and the inclusion of sovereignty requirements that could limit service provider choice and increase costs for insurers.
This article claims that Generative AI (GenAI) is revolutionizing actuarial science, as demonstrated in four case studies. Large Language Models enhance claims cost prediction by extracting features from unstructured text, reducing errors. Retrieval-Augmented Generation automates market comparisons by processing document data. Fine-tuned, vision-enabled LLMs excel in classifying car damage and extracting contextual details. A multi-agent system autonomously analyzes datasets and generates detailed reports. GenAI also shows promise in automating claims processing, fraud detection, and document compliance verification. Challenges include regulatory compliance, ethical concerns, and technical limitations, emphasizing the need for careful integration of GenAI in insurance workflows.
This study explores how Machiavellianism, a manipulative personality trait, fuels malicious insider behavior through the Fraud Triangle’s elements: pressure, opportunity, and rationalization. Analyzing 768 U.S. employees via PLS-SEM, researchers found Machiavellianism strongly influences all three, with rationalization as the primary driver of unethical intent. The findings highlight rationalization’s role in justifying malicious acts, urging organizations to bolster ethical cultures and accountability to curb insider threats. By linking personality traits to situational factors, the study enhances cybersecurity risk modeling and advocates for behaviorally informed insider threat prevention strategies.
This paper introduces a robust method for evaluating Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) when data distribution can't be simulated. Using rolling data windows as proxies for independent samples, the approach effectively assesses worst-case risk. Applied to Danish fire insurance data, it outperformed traditional DRO (distributional risk optimization) methods—achieving accurate, less conservative estimates in 87% of cases. This advancement enables reliable risk management even with limited tail data. Future research will focus on refining robustness guarantees and integrating extreme value theory into decision-making models involving rare but impactful events.