The ESAs Spring 2025 update highlights geopolitical tensions and cyber risks as major threats to EU financial stability. Trade disputes, policy shifts, conflicts, and economic fragmentation demand increased vigilance. Financial institutions face uncertainties in international markets, liquidity, and AI's role. Proactive risk management, cyber resilience, and monitoring global linkages are crucial.
The EBA's Q4 2024 Risk Dashboard shows EU/EEA banks maintaining strong performance. Return on equity rose to 10.5%, and return on assets reached 0.73%. Net interest margin declined slightly, but total income grew due to higher net fee and commission income. Loans to households and businesses increased, while cash balances fell. Non-performing loans decreased, except for commercial real estate. The CET1 ratio remained at 16.0%, reflecting strong capitalization. Liquidity and funding ratios stayed well above requirements. The loan-to-deposit ratio declined as deposits grew faster than loans. Overall, the banking sector remained stable and resilient.
#riskmanagement#geopoliticalrisk"The frequency of economic and #financialcrises is not increasing, but #politicalcrises can make #economiccrises more likely. The paper suggests that feedback between non-economic and economic crises can be important, but there is no comparable evidence for #climaterisk."
"This paper investigates the relationship between #geopoliticalrisk and #financialstress using a bivariate #var model. The study uses the #gpr Index to measure geopolitical risk and the OFSR FSI index to measure financial stress over a period of 06 January 2000 - 03 March 2023 on daily data. The results show a significant relationship between financial stress and geopolitical risk"
"The increased banking risk mainly attributed to reduction in bank capital and escalated fluctuations in bank profitability."
"... new risks—and the intensification of longstanding risks—are pressure-testing the agility and resilience of corporate strategies, risk management systems and practices."
“Empirical results indicate that firms with higher analyst attention, institutional ownership, and information disclosure quality rating are less sensitive to GPR [#geopoliticalrisk].”
"We show that negative shocks to the selected indicators lead to economic slowdown, with a persistent drop in GDP growth and a short-lived but large increase in country risk."
"... we disentangle GPR into its two components: geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts. We document that the effect of threats is greater than that of acts, indicating that unrealized risk is more detrimental than realized risk."