30 résultats
pour « uncertainty »
"The potential use of the proposed risk measures in insurance is illustrated by two concrete applications, capital risk allocation and premia calculation under uncertainty."
"... the reinsurance chain with ambiguity aversions in increasing order is optimal from the perspectives of both selfish individual companies and an unselfish central planner."
"Decision theory, both orthodox and behavioural, depicts decision rather narrowly as a prioritisation task undertaken within a delineated problem space where the probabilities “sum to one”. From such a perspective, certain perennial challenges in intelligence and counterintelligence appear resolvable when in fact they are not, at least not when approached from the usual direction."
"The possibilities of a Keynesian-Knightian synthesis as a way forward are considered by comparing these signposts. It is argued that, although there is some common ground between Knight and Keynes, there are fundamental differences particularly associated with Keynes’s concept of weight of argument."
"We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and inter-related tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty."
"... risk management involves decision-making, such that inherently subjective values are imposed upon the scientific analysis. As a result, disagreement is an expected component of any risk analysis or management activity."
"We show how to use Schelling’s focal points together with Kahneman & Tversky’s reference points and related concepts from behavioural economics to complement technical innovations and improve threat detection and deterrence."
"The standard statistical approaches to assessment of insurability and potential mispricing are enhanced in several aspects involving consideration of model risk … We demonstrate how to quantify the effect of model risk in this analysis by incorporating various robust estimators for key model parameter estimates that apply in both marginal and joint cyber risk loss process modelling."
"Our model handles typical stop-loss reinsurance contracts. We show that a three-point distribution achieves the worst-case VaR of the total retained loss of the insurer, from which the closed-form solutions of the worst-case distribution and optimal deductible are obtained. Moreover, we show that the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk of the total retained loss of the insurer is equal to the worst-case VaR, and thus the optimal deductible is the same in both cases."
" In order to quantify resilience uncertainty across the network resolutions (from macro-scale network statistics to individual node dynamics), we propose an arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion method to identify the probability of a node in losing its resilience and how the different model parameters contribute to this risk on a single node."