This paper refines wildfire risk assessment methodologies for the European Central Banks, focusing on the Fire Weather Index, land cover types, and climate data. Using logistic regression and xgboost models, it projects a 12% increase in high-risk areas by 2050, emphasizing advanced models' importance for accurate financial risk evaluation.
"Private businesses are making actuarial decisions, assessing that some locations are just too vulnerable to insure. At the same time, this insurance retreat also poses a policy challenge for states as they react to the mounting insurance gaps left by exiting private insurers."
Major financial centers introduced varied climate disclosure rules, notably Scope 3 mandates. EU and California led with mandates, while the SEC proposed but later removed them in 2024. Challenges include accuracy, standardization, and compliance costs. EU provides institutional support, but the U.S. lacks it, raising reporting stakes.
“... we construct a novel factor to measure the aggregate physical climate risk in the financial market and discuss its applications, including the assessment of insurers’ exposure to climate risk and the expected capital shortfall of insurers under climate stress scenarios.”
The paper delves into the intertwining of financial institutions and environmental concerns, particularly climate change and biodiversity loss. It introduces a dual framework based on 'impact' and 'risk' to explore their complex relationship. It analyzes the co-existing but sometimes opposing approaches at their interface, elucidating how finance, climate change, and biodiversity intertwine in the realm of "sustainable finance".