"Insights from scenario analysis may help inform the use of ‘hard’ macroprudential tools to foster the robustness and resilience of the banking system against climate-induced shocks. Against the backdrop of the ongoing reform of the EU’s macroprudential framework, the paper explores how the macroprudential toolkit could be adjusted to the reality of climate-related financial risks."
"While stress testing has modernized banks’ internal risk management by spurring the acquisition of highly skilled risk management talent, recent changes to the tests could erode its efficacy."
"... we propose a reverse stress testing framework for dynamic models. Specifically, we consider a compound Poisson process over a finite time horizon and stresses composed of expected values of functions applied to the process at the terminal time. We then define the stressed model as the probability measure under which the process satisfies the constraints and which minimizes the KullbackLeibler divergence to the reference compound Poisson model."
"Evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic had minimal effect on operational risk losses in 2020 is presented and the effect of model risk is emphasized. Our results show that the existence or otherwise of significant correlations depends on the regression model used, whether data series show trends, the time window concerned, geographical location and the type of financial institution."
"... we conclude that the Prophet model does a good job of forecasting bank capital ratios, which could supplement bank stress tests by regulatory agencies."