Nos derniers articles

There are five different common reactions to dealing with, or taming, this #uncertainty in #cyberspace: (1) using #riskmanagement to control uncertainty; (2) recovering from uncertainty through #resilience; (3) mitigating uncertainty through the use of #laws and #regulations; (4) suspending uncertainty by engaging in trust; and (5) ignoring uncertainty through inaction.

The latest #ai-#cybersecurity-#knowledgemanagement practices advance the future of #riskmanagement practices. The article highlights the importance of risk management and #cyberresilience in a dynamic world characterized by #uncertainty and complexity.

"Shocks to disaster costs seem to decrease all type of emissions significantly and also increase renewable energy use significantly. The occurrence of natural disasters increases the political disagreement among U.S. politicians, as well as, the climate policy uncertainty, highlighting the need for efficient policymaking and regulations. "

"We present a novel approach to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of risk estimates, using the CLIMADA open-source climate risk assessment platform. This work builds upon a recently developed extension of CLIMADA, which uses statistical modelling techniques to better quantify climate model ensemble uncertainty. Here, we further analyse the propagation of hazard, exposure and vulnerability uncertainties by varying a number of input factors based on a discrete, scientifically justified set of options."

"Bayesian estimates from experimental data can be influenced by highly diffuse or "uninformative" priors. This paper discusses how practitioners can use their own expertise to critique and select a prior that (i) incorporates our knowledge as experts in the field, and (ii) achieves favorable sampling properties. I demonstrate these techniques using data from eleven experiments of decision-making under risk, and discuss some implications of the findings."

"We show that negative shocks to the selected indicators lead to economic slowdown, with a persistent drop in GDP growth and a short-lived but large increase in country risk."

"This paper explores the notion of ‘cyber risk’, asking how we might understand it through a sociotechnical lens. It pays specific attention to how we can theorise cyber risk as an assemblage of sociotechnical ‘riskscapes’, in which our understanding of risk goes beyond organisational imperatives of ‘risk management’ and into treating cyber risk as a set of productive knowledges and practices within a political economy of uncertainty."

"Even pioneering forward-looking stress tests cannot feasibly capture all possible tail risks. We propose supplementing the existing capital requirements regime by giving it a stronger precautionary and macroprudential focus, paying particular attention to the prevention of environmental tipping points to avoid systemic and catastrophic impacts on the financial system and macroeconomy."

"Rebalancing regulation towards simplicity may produce Pareto-improving solutions, and encourage better decision making by authorities and regulated entities. However, addressing systemic risk in a complex financial system should not entail the replacement of overly complex rules with overly simple or less stringent regulations."

"Cost-benefit analysis embodies techniques for the analysis of possible harmful outcomes when the probability of those outcomes can be quantified with reasonable confidence. But when those probabilities cannot be quantified (“deep uncertainty”), the analytic path is more difficult. The problem is especially acute when potentially catastrophic outcomes are involved, because ignoring or marginalizing them could seriously skewing the analysis. Yet the likelihood of catastrophe is often difficult or impossible to quantify because such events may be unprecedented (runaway AI or tipping points for climate change) or extremely rare (global pandemics caused by novel viruses in the modern world). OMB’s current guidance to agencies on unquantifiable risks is now almost twenty years old and in serious need of updating. It correctly points to scenario analysis as an important tool but it fails to give guidance on the development of scenarios."