The paper presents a dual-model framework for chaotic inference and rare-event detection. Model A, using Poincaré–Mahalanobis, focuses on geometric structure for stable inference. Model B, employing Correlation–Integral with Fibonacci diagnostics, emphasizes recurrence statistics and volatility clustering. The Lorenz–Lorenz experiments show that diagnostic weighting shifts inference from stability to rare-event focus. The Lorenz–Rössler experiments demonstrate Model B’s generalization across attractors, maintaining sensitivity to volatility. The framework combines stable geometric anchoring with robust rare-event detection, advancing systemic risk analysis. Future work aims to extend the models to higher-dimensional systems, optimize computational efficiency, and apply them to finance, climate, and infrastructure.
The insurance industry in Europe is facing the immediate and growing financial impacts of climate change. It advocates for a comprehensive and collaborative approach to climate resilience, stressing the foundational importance of emissions reduction, robust prevention measures, and a proactive funding model. The industry emphasizes that effective solutions must be tailored to local contexts and require strong leadership and financial commitment from public authorities in collaboration with the private sector.
L’Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) et le Bureau du surintendant des institutions financières (BSIF) ont publié un rapport issu de l’Exercice normalisé d’analyse de scénarios climatiques (ENASC) 2024, impliquant plus de 250 institutions financières canadiennes. Bien que les risques climatiques ne posent pas de menace immédiate au secteur, ils pourraient s’intensifier à long terme, révélant des vulnérabilités. L’exercice a permis d’évaluer les risques physiques et de transition, et de renforcer leur mesure. Le rapport préconise d’améliorer les données, les modélisations et l’intégration de ces risques dans les processus décisionnels. Les conclusions influenceront les attentes de surveillance des deux organismes.
This position paper from Insurance Europe outlines their response to the European Commission's consultation on supplementary pensions, specifically addressing pension tracking systems, pension dashboards, auto-enrolment, and a review of the Pan-European Personal Pension Product (PEPP) Regulation and the Institutions for Occupational Retirement Provision (IORP II) Directive. The document emphasizes the importance of national diversity in pension systems, advocating against "one-size-fits-all" EU-level measures. It provides feedback on the effectiveness and challenges of existing frameworks, offering suggestions for improvement while consistently highlighting the need for flexibility, proportionality, and respect for national specificities in any proposed reforms. The paper also discusses the limited uptake of PEPP due to its complex and restrictive design, and offers insights into optimizing IORP II for long-term investment and member protection.
The ESAs published their fourth annual report on voluntary disclosures of principal adverse impacts (PAIs) under the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) on 9 September 2025. It records continued enhancement in the completeness and quality of PAI disclosures at both entity and product levels, especially among large multinational firms. Smaller entities, however, frequently merge general ESG messaging with SFDR reporting. National Competent Authorities noted uptake of previously highlighted good practices. The report also offers recommendations for NCAs’ supervisory roles and guidance for the European Commission ahead of SFDR’s next review.
EIOPA released a paper on September 8, 2025, providing technical input to support the development of supplementary pensions within the EU’s Savings and Investment Union framework. The paper outlines EIOPA’s views on enhancing pension systems, emphasizing consumer protection, financial stability, and sustainable finance. It proposes measures to improve access to pensions, strengthen governance, and align with EU regulatory frameworks like Solvency II and IORP II. The input aims to inform EU policy by addressing challenges in pension provision and promoting long-term savings.
The study examines the relationship between ESG variables and financial risk, measured through logarithmic volatility. It introduces the Hierarchical Variable Selection (HVS) algorithm, designed for ESG datasets, which is reported to outperform aggregated ESG scores and traditional selection models by providing higher explanatory power with fewer variables. Findings suggest that ESG risk factors vary across sectors and between large- and small-cap firms, influenced by differences in regulation, expectations, and strategy. The authors highlight the robustness and adaptability of HVS, noting its effectiveness in identifying risk-relevant ESG variables across industries and its potential for broader applications in hierarchical datasets.
The paper provides critical theoretical and practical contributions to actuarial science by demonstrating the often-overlooked significance of higher-order mixed moments. It offers tools for robust risk assessment through sharp bounds and standardized rank coefficients. The findings emphasize that while higher-order moments often have a monotonic effect on overall capital requirements and life annuity pricing, their influence on individual risk contribution can be highly nuanced. This calls for actuaries and risk managers to move beyond traditional second-order moment analysis and carefully consider complex dependence structures to ensure accurate risk management and pricing in insurance.
The paper investigates whether Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) engage in stronger window-dressing practices than other banks. It finds evidence that G-SIBs reduce exposures such as assets, debt, and derivatives more sharply at year-end and then increase them again in the following quarter, creating a “V-shape” pattern. This behavior is more pronounced for G-SIBs near regulatory thresholds or with higher surcharges, suggesting attempts to lower capital requirements. The study highlights potential market implications and questions the effectiveness of the G-SIB framework, suggesting reforms such as using average exposures rather than year-end figures.
These responses from Insurance Europe to various consultations by EIOPA concerning the Insurance Recovery and Resolution Directive (IRRD) outline the insurance industry's feedback on guidelines for identifying critical functions, removing impediments to resolvability, criteria for pre-emptive recovery planning and market share determination, and the content of both recovery and resolution plans, as well as resolvability assessments. A recurring theme across these responses is the industry's call for proportionality, flexibility, and reduced administrative burden, emphasizing that the IRRD's application should consider the unique characteristics of the insurance sector, distinguishing it from banking. The responses also frequently highlight concerns about duplication with existing DORA and Solvency II requirements and the lack of quantitative cost assessments for proposed regulations.