754 résultats pour « Autre »

Can the AML system be evaluated without better data?

The Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regime has harmonized laws globally but lacks credible data on its effectiveness. Evaluations are inconsistent and infrequent, relying on outdated data. Without systematic analysis, claims of effectiveness may be considered subjective, undermining legitimacy despite potential impacts of AML efforts.

Reinsurance with neural networks

“We consider an insurance company which faces financial risk in the form of insurance claims and market-dependent surplus fluctuations. The company aims to simultaneously control its terminal wealth (e.g. at the end of an accounting period) and the ruin probability in a finite time interval by purchasing reinsurance… We solve the problem of finding the optimal reinsurance strategy and the corresponding maximal target functional via neural networks.”

Geopolitical Risk Shocks: When the Size Matters

The paper examines non-linearities in how geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks affect the economy. Using a VARX model, it finds that large GPR shocks (above 4 standard deviations) significantly increase uncertainty, leading to precautionary saving and reduced consumption, with a more moderate impact on inflation due to conflicting demand and uncertainty effects.

An Integrated Approach to Importance Sampling and Machine Learning for Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation of Distortion Risk Measures in Black Box Models

“ In this paper, we propose an efficient important sampling method for distortion risk measures in such models that reduces the computational cost through machine learning. We demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the Monte Carlo method in numerical experiments on various distortion risk measures and models.”An Integrated App”

Advancing Pay‑as‑You‑Drive Insurance with Bayesian Models: Risk Prediction and Factor Causal Mapping

This study explores a Bayesian approach to Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) insurance, using Naive Bayes classifiers and Bayesian Networks for risk assessment. It achieved 87.5% accuracy in predicting risk and improved interpretability over traditional models, optimizing pricing strategies and promoting affordable coverage by dismissing geographic grouping in insurance pricing.

AI Act and the ECB: Steering Financial Supervision in the EU

The paper examines the EU AI Act's impact on banking supervision, highlighting the ECB's role. It discusses legal frameworks, obligations for high-risk AI systems, AI governance, and the balance between innovation and prudential requirements. Strategic policy recommendations are provided to enhance oversight and financial system integrity.